Dual Momentum
VEU
World ex-US · 100%
Risk-on
See the calculationOctober 2026 · PAA ConfirmedIEF · GSG +5US Intermediate Treasury 83.3% · Commodities 2.8%
Defensive
7 of 12 assets above their 13-month average · 83.3% bonds · GSG ranks first among risky assets
30 days until the next confirmation · as of Oct 2, 2026
Why this signal
risky assets
SPY+7.9%Selected
QQQ+12.7%Selected
IWM+4.3%Selected
VGK+2.4%Positive
EWJ+11.3%Selected
VWO+4.5%Selected
VNQ-1.6%Negative
GSG+24.1%Selected
GLD-5.5%Negative
HYG-0.8%Negative
LQD-4.1%Negative
TLT-7.8%Negative
defensive assets
IEF-4.2%Selected
PAA momentum (vs. 13-month average) · Keller & Keuning (2016)
Other strategies
VAA
SHY
US Short Treasury · 100%
Defensive
See the calculationDAA
SHY · GSG +2
US Short Treasury 50% · Commodities 16.7%
Defensive
See the calculationBiggest moves this month
Largest gainCL=FWTI Crude Oil+0.28#14 → #4 ▲10
Largest dropSLVSilver-0.63#9 → #47 ▼38
Signal changes, last 12 months
Monthly records for this strategy start with October 2026. Earlier rows are recalculated and have no record page.
September 2026IEFDefensive
August 2026IEFDefensive
July 2026IEFDefensive
June 2026IEFDefensive
May 2026IEFDefensiveRegime change
April 2026GLDRisk-on
March 2026EWJRisk-on
February 2026EWJRisk-on
January 2026VGKRisk-on
December 2025QQQRisk-onRegime change
November 2025IEFDefensive